Senin, 20 Juni 2011

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war news


We still need to succeed in Afghanistan

Posted: 20 Jun 2011 08:30 AM PDT

Frederick Kagan and Kimberley Kagan:

The New York Times reports today that senior officials within the Obama administration are pressing for an accelerated withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. The "rationale" for that pressure is supposedly the success of America's efforts against al Qaeda and the fact that "the counterterrorism campaign, which was favored by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2009, has outperformed the more troop-intensive counterinsurgency campaign pushed by Mr. Gates, Gen. David H. Petraeus and other top military planners."

This rationale—or rationalization?—is specious. It demonstrates a profound misunderstanding of the relationship between our efforts in Afghanistan and our successes in Pakistan, as well as of the inseparability of effective "counter-terrorism" operations from the counter-insurgency strategy President Obama announced in December 2009. Simply put, if the U.S. abandons the mission in Afghanistan before achieving the objectives President Obama announced at West Point, the "counter-terrorism" operations in Pakistan will also fail.

It is natural for the administration in office to take full credit for progress it inherited from its predecessor, and President Obama certainly deserves enormous credit for taking the risky decision to launch the operation that killed Osama bin Laden. But the present administration did not invent the strategy that made that operation possible, and the success of that operation was not independent from our efforts in Afghanistan.

...
I think Karzai and the Pakistan double dealing are starting to grate on our commitment in Afghanistan. We need to defeat the enemy in Pakistan against the will of the Pakistan government and its military to be ultimately successful in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, Karzai seems out of touch with the reality of the war that is being waged to save Afghanistan from the Taliban. He keeps throwing up opposition to war fighting techniques that are critical to the effort.

Pakistan is acting more like an enemy than an ally of late. They have not responded well ti the way we took out bin Laden, but in many cases they are validating our approach. The Kagans are right about the need to continue our counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. While we are seeing some some success, it is also possible that the Taliban are content to wait until we leave. We should frustrate that patience on their part.

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